Has global warming stalled?

A particular theme of mine on this blog has been that using temperature anomaly data alone to determine if global warming has stopped or not is simplistic and ignores indicators of global warming. These are reductions in the volume of long-term ice and increases in the ocean heat content. Today I came across an article by Kevin Trenberth called Has global warming stalled? It makes essentially the same arguments that I’ve been making here and I think it is well worth a read.

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13 Responses to Has global warming stalled?

  1. I see Anthony Watts has a new post called Kevin Trenberth struggles, mightily, to explain the lack of global warming, that also highlights this article about Kevin Trenberth. I think the correct title should be Anthony Watts struggles, mightily, to understand Kevin Trenberth’s explanation for why global warming has not paused.

  2. Rachel says:

    Great article from Kevin Trenberth!

  3. BBD says:

    At times like these, one has to wheel out the well-worn figure from Nuccitelli et al. (2012), which is worth a thousand words. Except when one is conversing with a denier, in which case nothing works, by definition.

    Figure: OHC compared to land surface, ice, tropospheric warming.

    Trying to get “sceptics” to understand that >90% of the energy that has accumulated in the climate system over the last half century is in the ocean is hard work. The standard response is “OHC denial”, recently showcased at WUWT by Bob Tisdale.

    Trying to get them to understand that a slight increase in the rate at which energy is mixed down into the ocean readily accounts for the slowdown in surface warming is harder still. As for getting them to accept that this is a temporary phenomenon… Let’s go for the easy option and teach the cat Wushu instead.

  4. Yes, I think I’ve used that figure in an earlier post (possibly without properly crediting Dana) and have tried hard to explain the role of the oceans in global warming. It does, however, seem to be a message that some are unable or unwilling to understand.

  5. It is a great article. It’s a pity those at WUWT and other skeptics won’t simply read this and think for a while about whether or not it makes sense, rather than dismissing it immediately.

  6. Rachel says:

    I’ve come to the realisation that it doesn’t matter what evidence you show them, some people will never question their beliefs.

  7. Paul Matthews says:

    You didn’t spot Trenberth’s misleading trick then?

  8. I assume you’re referring to the “missing heat” but maybe you explain what misleading trick Trenberth did.

  9. Paul Matthews says:

    First two periods had strong volcanic cooling, El Chichon 82 and Pinatubo 91. Current period doesn’t, so not comparable. See posts at Lucia’s blackboard.

    Your unquestioning nature does not fit with the claim of being a professional scientist at a top university.

  10. My unquestioning nature. Where do you get that from? Why don’t you try to make a substantive comment rather than snarky little asides and unpleasant characterisations. Then we may see who has an unquestioning nature and who doesn’t.

  11. Paul Matthews says:

    Your unquestioning nature is clear from the post. You have accepted what Trenberth says without question. Lucia on the other hand adopts a scientific approach, questioning, checking and testing. And the substantive point was in the first paragraph of my comment.

  12. No I haven’t. I have written a post suggesting that Kevin Trenberth’s article makes a similar case to what I have written before in posts on my blog, and suggested that his article is worth a read. Why don’t you try reading more of what I’ve written before deciding if I’m basing everything on an unquestioning acceptance of what is said by others. I’m trying very hard not to characterise you in any unpleasant way. Maybe you could offer me the same courtesy. No obligation to of course. You are, of course, free to think and believe whatever you like.

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